Bitcoin Value Prediction: Tom Lee Says the Month-to-month Closing Value Will Finish the Bear Market Endlessly

• The BTC Spot ETF recorded an outflow of $277.5 million on Could seventh, marking the fifth consecutive day of inflows.
• Open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion and quantity decreased by 12.98%, suggesting an exit from the place.
• Value regained the 20 EMA at $77,895 however continues to be buying and selling under the 200 EMA at $82,038.

Bitcoin was buying and selling at $79,642 as of Could 9, above the 20 EMA after a months-long rally, however going through its first ETF outflow day in virtually per week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee attracts a transparent line at Could’s month-to-month closing worth of $76,000.

In regards to the $80,000 that the every day chart exhibits

The every day chart exhibits that BTC has damaged above the downtrend line that has capped the worth since its October 2025 peak close to $126,000. The 20 EMA at $77,895 and the 50 EMA at $75,327 are each presently under the worth, a constructive change after appearing as resistance for a number of months. Parabolic SAR at $76,718 turned bullish and fell under the present worth for the primary time for the reason that restoration started.

The wall is on the 200 EMA at $82,038. Through the day on Could eighth, the worth reached $80,136 however fell again, leaving a visual unfavorable response. The broader EMA construction stays bearish on the macro time-frame till BTC closes the every day candle above $82,038.

Predominant degree:

• Resistance: $82,038 (200 EMA), earlier construction $85,000
• Assist: $76,718 (SAR), $75,327 (50 EMA), $76,000 (Tom Lee Bear Market Line)
• Restoration: 20 EMA and 50 EMA each flip to assist

ETF outflows exceed 5 consecutive days

The Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded web outflows of $277.5 million on Could seventh, its first unfavorable day after 5 consecutive periods of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT topped the record with $98.02 million, adopted by Constancy’s FBTC with $128.99 million. The overall web asset worth of all US BTC spot ETFs stays at $106.77 billion, equal to five.67% of Bitcoin market capitalization, and cumulative inflows stay at $59.49 billion.

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A single day of sturdy inflows adopted by outflows will not be in itself alarming. The earlier 5 periods have totaled greater than $1.4 billion in beneficial properties, so the transfer is predicted to see some profit-taking at resistance close to $80,000.

BTC Derivatives: What the OI drop and quantity imply for the subsequent transfer

Quantity decreased by 12.98% to $64.22 billion, and open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion. If each go down collectively, merchants will shut out positions relatively than build up new shorts or longs. Binance’s lengthy/quick ratio is 0.774, which is barely biased in the direction of shorts for retail accounts, whereas the ratio for Binance’s high merchants is 0.7028, which can be biased in the direction of shorts.

Previously 24 hours, $94.25 million of longs had been liquidated and $5.03 million turned shorts. This lopsided liquidation map means the market was not bearish, however squeezed overleveraged longs with the $80,000 rejection.

Tom Lee on Consensus 2026: Why $76,000 is the one quantity that issues

Talking at Consensus 2026 in Miami, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin has by no means had three consecutive constructive month-to-month closing costs in a bear market. March and April had been each closed in inexperienced. April’s closing worth was $76,300, but when Could’s closing worth rises above $76,000, it is going to be the third consecutive rally and, in Lee’s studying, the bear market will likely be over.

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He additionally cited tokenization and AI-driven finance as structural drivers for the subsequent cycle, noting that stablecoin buying and selling quantity has already surpassed Visa and $300 trillion of securities markets are shifting on-chain.

BTC worth prediction for Could ninth

• Upside: A every day shut above $82,038 (200 EMA) will start an upward transfer in the direction of $85,000-$88,000. As soon as ETF inflows resume, it’ll affirm that the decline has been absorbed. If Could ends nicely, we’ll develop our objective to $95,000.
• Draw back: Failure to carry $77,895 (20 EMA) at every day shut will shortly affect SAR ranges of $75,327 and $76,718. If the Could closing worth falls under $76,000, Mr. Lee’s bullish case will likely be utterly invalidated.