Bitcoin Value Prediction: Tom Lee Says the Month-to-month Closing Value Will Finish the Bear Market Ceaselessly

• The BTC Spot ETF recorded an outflow of $277.5 million on Might seventh, marking the fifth consecutive day of inflows.
• Open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion, whereas quantity decreased by 12.98%, suggesting an exit from the place.
• Value regained the 20 EMA at $77,895 however remains to be buying and selling under the 200 EMA at $82,038.

Bitcoin was buying and selling at $79,642 as of Might 9, above the 20 EMA after a months-long rally, however going through its first ETF outflow day in virtually every week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee attracts a transparent line at Might’s month-to-month closing value of $76,000.

Concerning the $80,000 that the each day chart exhibits

The each day chart exhibits that BTC has damaged above the downtrend line that has capped the value since its October 2025 peak close to $126,000. The 20 EMA at $77,895 and the 50 EMA at $75,327 are each at the moment under the value, a constructive change after performing as resistance for a number of months. Parabolic SAR at $76,718 turned bullish and fell under the present value for the primary time for the reason that restoration started.

The wall is on the 200 EMA at $82,038. Throughout the day on Might eighth, the value reached $80,136 however fell again, leaving a visual unfavorable response. The broader EMA construction stays bearish on the macro time-frame till BTC closes the each day candle above $82,038.

Principal degree:

• Resistance: $82,038 (200 EMA), earlier construction $85,000
• Help: $76,718 (SAR), $75,327 (50 EMA), $76,000 (Tom Lee Bear Market Line)
• Restoration: 20 EMA and 50 EMA each flip to assist

ETF outflows exceed 5 consecutive days

The Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded internet outflows of $277.5 million on Might seventh, its first unfavorable day after 5 consecutive classes of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT topped the record with $98.02 million, adopted by Constancy’s FBTC with $128.99 million. The full internet asset worth of all US BTC spot ETFs stays at $106.77 billion, equal to five.67% of Bitcoin market capitalization, and cumulative inflows stay at $59.49 billion.

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A single day of sturdy inflows adopted by outflows is just not in itself alarming. The earlier 5 classes have totaled greater than $1.4 billion in features, so the transfer is anticipated to see some profit-taking at resistance close to $80,000.

BTC Derivatives: What the OI drop and quantity imply for the subsequent transfer

Quantity decreased by 12.98% to $64.22 billion, and open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion. If each go down collectively, merchants will shut out positions reasonably than increase new shorts or longs. Binance’s lengthy/quick ratio is 0.774, which is barely biased in direction of shorts for retail accounts, whereas the ratio for Binance’s high merchants is 0.7028, which can also be biased in direction of shorts.

Previously 24 hours, $94.25 million of longs have been liquidated and $5.03 million grew to become shorts. This lopsided liquidation map means the market was not bearish, however squeezed overleveraged longs with the $80,000 rejection.

Tom Lee on Consensus 2026: Why $76,000 is the one quantity that issues

Talking at Consensus 2026 in Miami, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin has by no means had three consecutive constructive month-to-month closing costs in a bear market. March and April have been each closed in inexperienced. April’s closing value was $76,300, but when Might’s closing value rises above $76,000, will probably be the third consecutive rally and, in Lee’s studying, the bear market can be over.

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He additionally cited tokenization and AI-driven finance as structural drivers for the subsequent cycle, noting that stablecoin buying and selling quantity has already surpassed Visa and $300 trillion of securities markets are shifting on-chain.

BTC value prediction for Might ninth

• Upside: A each day shut above $82,038 (200 EMA) will start an upward transfer in direction of $85,000-$88,000. As soon as ETF inflows resume, it is going to verify that the decline has been absorbed. If Might ends effectively, we are going to develop our purpose to $95,000.
• Draw back: Failure to carry $77,895 (20 EMA) at each day shut will shortly impression SAR ranges of $75,327 and $76,718. If the Might closing value falls under $76,000, Mr. Lee’s bullish case can be fully invalidated.