Bitcoin Worth Prediction: Tom Lee Says the Month-to-month Closing Worth Will Finish the Bear Market Without end

• The BTC Spot ETF recorded an outflow of $277.5 million on Could seventh, marking the fifth consecutive day of inflows.
• Open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion, whereas quantity decreased by 12.98%, suggesting an exit from the place.
• Worth regained the 20 EMA at $77,895 however remains to be buying and selling beneath the 200 EMA at $82,038.

Bitcoin was buying and selling at $79,642 as of Could 9, above the 20 EMA after a months-long rally, however dealing with its first ETF outflow day in nearly every week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee attracts a transparent line at Could’s month-to-month closing value of $76,000.

In regards to the $80,000 that the day by day chart exhibits

The day by day chart exhibits that BTC has damaged above the downtrend line that has capped the worth since its October 2025 peak close to $126,000. The 20 EMA at $77,895 and the 50 EMA at $75,327 are each at the moment beneath the worth, a constructive change after appearing as resistance for a number of months. Parabolic SAR at $76,718 turned bullish and fell beneath the present value for the primary time because the restoration started.

The wall is on the 200 EMA at $82,038. Through the day on Could eighth, the worth reached $80,136 however fell again, leaving a visual unfavourable response. The broader EMA construction stays bearish on the macro time-frame till BTC closes the day by day candle above $82,038.

Most important stage:

• Resistance: $82,038 (200 EMA), earlier construction $85,000
• Help: $76,718 (SAR), $75,327 (50 EMA), $76,000 (Tom Lee Bear Market Line)
• Restoration: 20 EMA and 50 EMA each flip to help

ETF outflows exceed 5 consecutive days

The Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded web outflows of $277.5 million on Could seventh, its first unfavourable day after 5 consecutive periods of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT topped the record with $98.02 million, adopted by Constancy’s FBTC with $128.99 million. The entire web asset worth of all US BTC spot ETFs stays at $106.77 billion, equal to five.67% of Bitcoin market capitalization, and cumulative inflows stay at $59.49 billion.

Associated: Zcash value prediction: ZEC maintains bullish construction after 64% surge, breakout above $600 additionally noticeable

A single day of robust inflows adopted by outflows will not be in itself alarming. The earlier 5 periods have totaled greater than $1.4 billion in beneficial properties, so the transfer is predicted to see some profit-taking at resistance close to $80,000.

BTC Derivatives: What the OI drop and quantity imply for the following transfer

Quantity decreased by 12.98% to $64.22 billion, and open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion. If each go down collectively, merchants will shut out positions reasonably than increase new shorts or longs. Binance’s lengthy/brief ratio is 0.774, which is barely biased in the direction of shorts for retail accounts, whereas the ratio for Binance’s prime merchants is 0.7028, which can also be biased in the direction of shorts.

Prior to now 24 hours, $94.25 million of longs have been liquidated and $5.03 million grew to become shorts. This lopsided liquidation map means the market was not bearish, however squeezed overleveraged longs with the $80,000 rejection.

Tom Lee on Consensus 2026: Why $76,000 is the one quantity that issues

Talking at Consensus 2026 in Miami, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin has by no means had three consecutive constructive month-to-month closing costs in a bear market. March and April have been each closed in inexperienced. April’s closing value was $76,300, but when Could’s closing value rises above $76,000, it will likely be the third consecutive rally and, in Lee’s studying, the bear market will probably be over.

Associated: Solana Worth Prediction: Crypto Invoice Costs Rise Subsequent Week as SOL ETF Crosses $1 Billion

He additionally cited tokenization and AI-driven finance as structural drivers for the following cycle, noting that stablecoin buying and selling quantity has already surpassed Visa and $300 trillion of securities markets are transferring on-chain.

BTC value prediction for Could ninth

• Upside: A day by day shut above $82,038 (200 EMA) will start an upward transfer in the direction of $85,000-$88,000. As soon as ETF inflows resume, it is going to verify that the decline has been absorbed. If Could ends properly, we’ll broaden our objective to $95,000.
• Draw back: Failure to carry $77,895 (20 EMA) at day by day shut will rapidly influence SAR ranges of $75,327 and $76,718. If the Could closing value falls beneath $76,000, Mr. Lee’s bullish case will probably be fully invalidated.