Bitcoin Worth Prediction: Tom Lee Says the Month-to-month Closing Worth Will Finish the Bear Market Ceaselessly

• The BTC Spot ETF recorded an outflow of $277.5 million on Might seventh, marking the fifth consecutive day of inflows.
• Open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion and quantity decreased by 12.98%, suggesting an exit from the place.
• Worth regained the 20 EMA at $77,895 however remains to be buying and selling beneath the 200 EMA at $82,038.

Bitcoin was buying and selling at $79,642 as of Might 9, above the 20 EMA after a months-long rally, however dealing with its first ETF outflow day in virtually every week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee attracts a transparent line at Might’s month-to-month closing worth of $76,000.

Concerning the $80,000 that the day by day chart reveals

The day by day chart reveals that BTC has damaged above the downtrend line that has capped the worth since its October 2025 peak close to $126,000. The 20 EMA at $77,895 and the 50 EMA at $75,327 are each presently beneath the worth, a constructive change after appearing as resistance for a number of months. Parabolic SAR at $76,718 turned bullish and fell beneath the present worth for the primary time because the restoration started.

The wall is on the 200 EMA at $82,038. In the course of the day on Might eighth, the worth reached $80,136 however fell again, leaving a visual detrimental response. The broader EMA construction stays bearish on the macro timeframe till BTC closes the day by day candle above $82,038.

Major stage:

• Resistance: $82,038 (200 EMA), earlier construction $85,000
• Assist: $76,718 (SAR), $75,327 (50 EMA), $76,000 (Tom Lee Bear Market Line)
• Restoration: 20 EMA and 50 EMA each flip to help

ETF outflows exceed 5 consecutive days

The Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded internet outflows of $277.5 million on Might seventh, its first detrimental day after 5 consecutive classes of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT topped the record with $98.02 million, adopted by Constancy’s FBTC with $128.99 million. The entire internet asset worth of all US BTC spot ETFs stays at $106.77 billion, equal to five.67% of Bitcoin market capitalization, and cumulative inflows stay at $59.49 billion.

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A single day of sturdy inflows adopted by outflows just isn’t in itself alarming. The earlier 5 classes have totaled greater than $1.4 billion in features, so the transfer is anticipated to see some profit-taking at resistance close to $80,000.

BTC Derivatives: What the OI drop and quantity imply for the subsequent transfer

Quantity decreased by 12.98% to $64.22 billion, and open curiosity decreased by 3.70% to $59.36 billion. If each go down collectively, merchants will shut out positions reasonably than increase new shorts or longs. Binance’s lengthy/quick ratio is 0.774, which is barely biased in the direction of shorts for retail accounts, whereas the ratio for Binance’s prime merchants is 0.7028, which can be biased in the direction of shorts.

Up to now 24 hours, $94.25 million of longs had been liquidated and $5.03 million grew to become shorts. This lopsided liquidation map means the market was not bearish, however squeezed overleveraged longs with the $80,000 rejection.

Tom Lee on Consensus 2026: Why $76,000 is the one quantity that issues

Talking at Consensus 2026 in Miami, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin has by no means had three consecutive constructive month-to-month closing costs in a bear market. March and April had been each closed in inexperienced. April’s closing worth was $76,300, but when Might’s closing worth rises above $76,000, will probably be the third consecutive rally and, in Lee’s studying, the bear market might be over.

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He additionally cited tokenization and AI-driven finance as structural drivers for the subsequent cycle, noting that stablecoin buying and selling quantity has already surpassed Visa and $300 trillion of securities markets are transferring on-chain.

BTC worth prediction for Might ninth

• Upside: A day by day shut above $82,038 (200 EMA) will start an upward transfer in the direction of $85,000-$88,000. As soon as ETF inflows resume, it is going to affirm that the decline has been absorbed. If Might ends properly, we are going to broaden our aim to $95,000.
• Draw back: Failure to carry $77,895 (20 EMA) at day by day shut will shortly impression SAR ranges of $75,327 and $76,718. If the Might closing worth falls beneath $76,000, Mr. Lee’s bullish case might be fully invalidated.